← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sun, Feb 15, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Dickinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell win | 61% | 55% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.10 | fair |
| Aberdeen win | 17% | 21% | 5.50 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen −1 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Motherwell −1 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 55% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 45% | 2.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Callum Slattery · Motherwell |
| 28' | ⚽ | Elijah Just · Motherwell |
| 32' | 🟨 | Liam Morrison · Aberdeen |
| 37' | 🟨 | Tom McIntyre · Aberdeen |
| 52' | 🟨 | Dennis Geiger · Aberdeen |
| 67' | 🟨 | Topi Keskinen · Aberdeen |
| 72' | 🟨 | Lyall Cameron · Aberdeen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ante Palaversa · Aberdeen |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Tom McIntyre · Motherwell |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Motherwell | Aberdeen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.40 |
| venue | Fir Park |
| coach days | 76.00 | 106.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1582.79 | 1441.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.00 | -29.46 |
| eye test v1 | 1.18 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.62 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 49.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.89 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.91 | 0.69 |
| league points | 44.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 3.77 | 14.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.80 | -7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.13 | 0.02 |
| solidity v1 | 1.29 | -1.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.16 | 27.15 |
| state index | 1.01 | -0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.56 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 2.10 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.66 | 1.32 |