← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sun, Feb 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Nicolson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic win | 69% | 69% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 19% | 5.25 | fair |
| Kilmarnock win | 13% | 12% | 7.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock +1.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Celtic +1.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 60% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 40% | 2.63 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Tyreece John-Jules · Kilmarnock |
| 28' | ⚽ | Joe Hugill · Kilmarnock |
| 56' | ⚽ | Sebastian Tounekti · Celtic |
| 64' | ⚽ | Benjamin Nygren · Celtic |
| 67' | 🟨 | David Watson · Kilmarnock |
| 70' | 🟨 | Tomáš Čvančara · Celtic |
| 74' | 🟨 | Callum McGregor · Celtic |
| 90' | 🟨 | Julian Araujo · Celtic |
| 90' | ⚽ | Julian Araujo · Celtic |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 24 |
| 7 | On target | 10 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kilmarnock | Celtic |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Rugby Park |
| coach days | 76.00 | 198.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 3.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1418.85 | 1750.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.91 | 15.35 |
| eye test v1 | 0.37 | 1.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.48 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| league points | 20.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 3.76 | 3.76 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.77 | 2.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.00 | 0.92 |
| solidity v1 | -2.23 | -0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 26.22 | 28.12 |
| state index | -0.38 | 0.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.84 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.27 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.16 | 2.37 |