← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Wed, Feb 11, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: S. McLean
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers win | 39% | 47% | 2.35 | value: +10% |
| Motherwell win | 34% | 27% | 2.70 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rangers +0 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Motherwell +0 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 53% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 47% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Nicolas Raskin · Rangers |
| 14' | 🟨 | Mohammed Diomande · Rangers |
| 43' | 🟨 | Nicolas Raskin · Rangers |
| 56' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Said · Motherwell |
| 63' | 🟨 | Elijah Just · Motherwell |
| 75' | 🟨 | Jayden Meghoma · Rangers |
| 78' | 🟥 | Lukas Fadinger · Motherwell |
| 80' | 🟨 | John Souttar · Rangers |
| 87' | 🟨 | Bojan Miovski · Rangers |
| 89' | ⚽ | Stephen Welsh · Motherwell |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Motherwell | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | Fir Park |
| coach days | 72.00 | 225.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 1.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1580.63 | 1716.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 49.84 | 5.08 |
| eye test v1 | 1.18 | 0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | -0.84 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.93 | 0.86 |
| league points | 43.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.60 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 11.21 | 7.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.11 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 2.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 10.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 19.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.90 | 0.96 |
| solidity v1 | 0.92 | 0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 6.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 27.42 | 25.32 |
| state index | 1.29 | 0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | 0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 1.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 1.55 |