← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Wed, Feb 11, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: G. Irvine
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Mirren win | 42% | 35% | 2.20 | fair |
| Kilmarnock win | 30% | 39% | 3.10 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock +0.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| St Mirren +0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 56% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 44% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Killian Phillips · St Mirren |
| 11' | 🟨 | David Watson · Kilmarnock |
| 40' | 🟨 | Richard King · St Mirren |
| 43' | ⚽ | Greg Kiltie · Kilmarnock |
| 45' | ⚽ | Tyreece John-Jules · Kilmarnock |
| 48' | ⚽ | Killian Phillips · St Mirren |
| 74' | 🟨 | Alexander Gogić · St Mirren |
| 76' | ⚽ | Tyreece John-Jules · Kilmarnock |
| 82' | ⚽ | Tyreece John-Jules · Kilmarnock |
| 86' | 🟨 | Miguel Freckleton · St Mirren |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 15 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kilmarnock | St Mirren |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Rugby Park |
| ⚽ |
| Scott Tanser · St Mirren |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 72.00 | 10.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 2.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1409.21 | 1456.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.15 | -12.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 50.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| league points | 17.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.00 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.99 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.68 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.51 | -0.38 |
| solidity v1 | -2.50 | 0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.50 | 27.02 |
| state index | -0.76 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.80 | -0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.35 | 0.79 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.76 | 1.11 |