← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Wed, Feb 11, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: C. Scott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic win | 85% | 89% | 1.08 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 8% | 10.00 | fair |
| Livingston win | 6% | 3% | 15.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Livingston −2.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Celtic −2.5 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 73% | 71% | 1.30 | fair |
| Under | 27% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Marcelo Saracchi · Celtic |
| 43' | 🟨 | Stevie May · Livingston |
| 45' | 🟨 | Liam Scales · Celtic |
| 54' | 🟨 | Callum McGregor · Celtic |
| 57' | ⚽ (pen) | Robbie Muirhead · Livingston |
| 89' | 🟨 | Lewis Smith · Livingston |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jérôme Prior · Livingston |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jeremy Bokila · Livingston |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain · Celtic |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 29 | Shots | 4 |
| 12 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Celtic | Livingston |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.85 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Celtic Park |
| coach days | 194.00 | 72.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.51 | 2.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1749.39 | 1290.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.49 | -19.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 49.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.56 |
| league points | 48.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 10.20 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.43 | -0.29 |
| solidity v1 | -0.48 | -1.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.75 | 28.35 |
| state index | 0.97 | -1.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 2.01 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.05 | 1.01 |