← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Wed, Feb 4, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Dickinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers win | 75% | 79% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 15% | 5.25 | fair |
| Kilmarnock win | 8% | 6% | 12.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock −1.75 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Rangers −1.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 60% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 40% | 2.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟥 | Dominic Thompson · Kilmarnock |
| 5' | ⚽ (pen) | James Tavernier · Rangers |
| 23' | 🟨 | Tyreece John-Jules · Kilmarnock |
| 43' | 🟨 | James Tavernier · Rangers |
| 58' | 🟨 | Bruce Anderson · Kilmarnock |
| 58' | ⚽ | Bojan Miovski · Rangers |
| 74' | ⚽ | Andreas Skov Olsen · Rangers |
| 84' | ⚽ | Greg Kiltie · Kilmarnock |
| 89' | ⚽ | Oliver Antman · Rangers |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mikey Moore · Rangers |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 28 | Shots | 8 |
| 11 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rangers | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.81 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Ibrox Stadium |
| coach days | 218.00 | 65.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1712.53 | 1413.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.51 | -9.66 |
| eye test v1 | 0.47 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.70 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.67 |
| league points | 48.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 3.24 | 4.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.43 | -0.52 |
| solidity v1 | 0.76 | -1.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 24.86 | 26.63 |
| state index | 0.91 | -0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.99 | 2.01 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.57 |