← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 31, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Scott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hearts win | 55% | 53% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.60 | fair |
| Dundee United win | 19% | 20% | 4.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dundee United +0.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Hearts +0.75 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 52% | 1.90 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 48% | 1.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Pierre Landry Kabore · Hearts |
| 24' | 🟥 | Amar Fatah · Dundee United |
| 29' | ⚽ (pen) | Alexandros Kyziridis · Hearts |
| 31' | 🟨 | Kristijan Trapanovski · Dundee United |
| 45' | 🟨 | Harry Milne · Hearts |
| 54' | 🟨 | Craig Sibbald · Dundee United |
| 61' | 🟨 | Neil Farrugia · Dundee United |
| 75' | 🟥 | Panutche Camará · Dundee United |
| 81' | ⚽ | Pierre Landry Kabore · Hearts |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 3 | Shots | 22 |
| 2 | On target | 12 |
| 0 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dundee United | Hearts |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | Tannadice Park |
| coach days | 61.00 | 61.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.56 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1476.02 | 1669.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.57 | 2.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.70 | 66.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.65 |
| league points | 25.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.00 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.00 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 21.21 | 6.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 2.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.50 | 0.13 |
| solidity v1 | -0.81 | 0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 25.46 | 28.30 |
| state index | -0.26 | 0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.91 | 0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.70 | 1.06 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 1.55 |