← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 31, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Wilson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen win | 41% | 38% | 2.32 | fair |
| Kilmarnock win | 31% | 34% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock +0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Aberdeen +0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 51% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 49% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Graeme Shinnie · Aberdeen |
| 12' | ⚽ | Bradley Lyons · Kilmarnock |
| 14' | ⚽ | Bruce Anderson · Kilmarnock |
| 42' | 🟨 | David Watson · Kilmarnock |
| 45' | 🟨 | Liam Morrison · Aberdeen |
| 51' | 🟥 | Graeme Shinnie · Aberdeen |
| 59' | ⚽ | Tyreece John-Jules · Kilmarnock |
| 83' | 🟨 | Dominic Thompson · Kilmarnock |
| 84' | 🟨 | Kjartan Mar Kjartansson · Aberdeen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ethan Brown · Kilmarnock |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 8 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kilmarnock | Aberdeen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Rugby Park |
| coach days | 61.00 | 91.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1395.75 | 1459.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.83 | -19.51 |
| eye test v1 | -0.92 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | 0.64 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 52.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.89 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.71 |
| league points | 14.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 16.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.60 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.61 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.20 | -8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.07 | -0.12 |
| solidity v1 | -1.77 | -1.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.81 | 26.93 |
| state index | -1.59 | -0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.62 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.94 | 2.11 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.19 |