← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sun, Jan 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. McLean
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic win | 44% | 45% | 2.10 | fair |
| Hearts win | 29% | 28% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Celtic +0.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Hearts +0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 52% | 1.91 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 48% | 1.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Benjamin Nygren · Celtic |
| 48' | ⚽ | Stuart Findlay · Hearts |
| 62' | ⚽ | Yang Hyun-Jun · Celtic |
| 64' | 🟨 | Tomáš Čvančara · Celtic |
| 65' | 🟨 | Tomas Magnusson · Hearts |
| 77' | 🟥 | Auston Trusty · Celtic |
| 79' | 🟨 | Julian Araujo · Celtic |
| 82' | 🟨 | Oisin McEntee · Hearts |
| 87' | ⚽ | Cláudio Braga · Hearts |
| 89' | 🟨 | Stuart Findlay · Hearts |
| 89' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 22 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hearts | Celtic |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Tynecastle Park |
| Arne Engels · Celtic |
| 89' | 🟨 | Callum McGregor · Celtic |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kasper Schmeichel · Celtic |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sebastian Tounekti · Celtic |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 55.00 | 177.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1668.94 | 1738.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.94 | -28.17 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | 0.97 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.90 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| league points | 50.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 10.80 | 2.89 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.27 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.06 | 1.44 |
| solidity v1 | 0.77 | -0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 29.68 | 27.41 |
| state index | 0.73 | 0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | 0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.97 | 1.27 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.49 | 2.54 |