← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Hardie
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen win | 53% | 53% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 3.80 | fair |
| Livingston win | 23% | 24% | 4.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Livingston −0.75 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Aberdeen −0.75 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 52% | 1.83 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 48% | 2.03 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Kenan Bilalovic · Aberdeen |
| 28' | ⚽ | Mahamadou Susoho · Livingston |
| 31' | ⚽ | Robbie Muirhead · Livingston |
| 42' | 🟨 | Macaulay Tait · Livingston |
| 43' | 🟨 | Mats Knoester · Aberdeen |
| 45' | 🟨 | Nicky Devlin · Aberdeen |
| 45' | ⚽ | Kevin Nisbet · Aberdeen |
| 45' | ⚽ | Kevin Nisbet · Aberdeen |
| 58' | 🟨 | Topi Keskinen · Aberdeen |
| 59' | 🟨 | Connor McLennan · Livingston |
| 69' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aberdeen | Livingston |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Pittodrie Stadium |
| 🟥 |
| Jack Milne · Aberdeen |
| 70' | 🟨 | Graeme Shinnie · Aberdeen |
| 70' | 🟥 | Jeremy Bokila · Livingston |
| 75' | ⚽ | Sivert Heltne Nilsen · Aberdeen |
| 85' | ⚽ | Topi Keskinen · Aberdeen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Topi Keskinen · Aberdeen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 84.00 | 54.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 3.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1450.01 | 1312.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.26 | -12.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.72 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.80 | 52.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.64 |
| league points | 25.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 20.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 12.94 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.80 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | -0.70 |
| solidity v1 | -1.33 | -1.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.58 | 28.17 |
| state index | -1.07 | -1.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.53 | -0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.97 | 1.95 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.71 |