← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. MacDermid
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernian win | 48% | 45% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.40 | fair |
| Motherwell win | 25% | 25% | 3.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Motherwell −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Hibernian −0.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 47% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 53% | 2.00 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Josh Mulligan · Hibernian |
| 34' | 🟨 | Stephen Welsh · Motherwell |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lukas Fadinger · Motherwell |
| 47' | 🟨 | Jordan Obita · Hibernian |
| 52' | ⚽ | Tawanda Maswanhise · Motherwell |
| 69' | ⚽ | Kieron Bowie · Hibernian |
| 73' | 🟨 | Oscar Priestman · Motherwell |
| 80' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Longelo · Motherwell |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Said · Motherwell |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hibernian | Motherwell |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Easter Road |
| coach days | 40.00 | 40.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1619.91 | 1562.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.70 | 31.48 |
| eye test v1 | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| league points | 34.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.16 | 0.81 |
| solidity v1 | 0.28 | 0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 28.05 | 27.37 |
| state index | 0.66 | 0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | 0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 1.19 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 1.55 |