← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Dickinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernian win | 51% | 53% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
| Kilmarnock win | 23% | 20% | 4.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hibernian +0.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Kilmarnock +0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 50% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 50% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Thody Elie Youan · Hibernian |
| 45' | 🟨 | Thody Elie Youan · Hibernian |
| 57' | ⚽ | Tyreece John-Jules · Kilmarnock |
| 69' | 🟨 | Robbie Deas · Kilmarnock |
| 71' | ⚽ | Thody Elie Youan · Hibernian |
| 77' | 🟨 | Raphael Sallinger · Hibernian |
| 80' | 🟥 | David Watson · Kilmarnock |
| 87' | 🟨 | Marcus Dackers · Kilmarnock |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jack Thomson · Kilmarnock |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordan Obita · Hibernian |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 15 |
| 1 | On target | 9 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kilmarnock | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Rugby Park |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Jamie McGrath · Hibernian |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 33.00 | 33.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1414.35 | 1610.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.99 | 19.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | 0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | — |
| league points | 13.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.65 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.86 | -0.16 |
| solidity v1 | -0.89 | 0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.44 | 27.77 |
| state index | -1.44 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.77 | -0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 1.31 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 1.28 |