← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sun, Dec 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Dickinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic win | 69% | 73% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 18% | 5.50 | fair |
| Aberdeen win | 14% | 9% | 6.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen −1.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Celtic −1.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 66% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 34% | 2.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Stuart Armstrong · Aberdeen |
| 39' | ⚽ | Benjamin Nygren · Celtic |
| 45' | 🟨 | Arne Engels · Celtic |
| 45' | 🟥 | Dylan Lobban · Aberdeen |
| 74' | ⚽ | Kenan Bilalovic · Aberdeen |
| 84' | 🟨 | Alexander Jensen · Aberdeen |
| 88' | ⚽ | Kieran Tierney · Celtic |
| 90' | ⚽ | James Forrest · Celtic |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 31 | Shots | 10 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Celtic | Aberdeen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| venue | Celtic Park |
| coach days | 142.00 | 50.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1748.64 | 1473.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -42.61 | 6.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.70 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| league points | 32.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.40 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.22 | -0.02 |
| solidity v1 | -0.20 | -0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 29.46 | — |
| state index | 0.20 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.75 | -0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 1.24 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 0.97 |