← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. MacDermid
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Motherwell win | 71% | 63% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 23% | 5.25 | value: +19% |
| Dundee win | 12% | 15% | 8.00 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Dundee −1.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Motherwell −1.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 55% | 50% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 50% | 2.10 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand