← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sun, Dec 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Hardie
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen win | 57% | 54% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.60 | fair |
| Kilmarnock win | 17% | 19% | 5.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen −0.75 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Kilmarnock −0.75 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 56% | 1.88 | value: +6% |
| Over | 49% | 44% | 1.98 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Tyreece John-Jules · Kilmarnock |
| 51' | 🟨 | George Stanger · Kilmarnock |
| 57' | 🟨 | Robbie Deas · Kilmarnock |
| 61' | 🟨 | Bradley Lyons · Kilmarnock |
| 69' | 🟨 | James Brown · Kilmarnock |
| 75' | 🟨 | Marko Lazetić · Aberdeen |
| 79' | ⚽ | Kenan Bilalovic · Aberdeen |
| 85' | ⚽ (pen) | Jesper Karlsson · Aberdeen |
| 88' | 🟨 | Adil Aouchiche · Aberdeen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Liam Polworth · Kilmarnock |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aberdeen | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Pittodrie Stadium |
| coach days | 43.00 | 13.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.47 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1485.02 | 1437.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.26 | -24.50 |
| eye test v1 | 0.37 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.63 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.63 |
| league points | 21.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 66.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 37.40 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 7.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.02 | -1.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.93 | 25.91 |
| state index | -0.11 | -1.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.43 | -1.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |