← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. McFarlane
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Livingston win | 52% | 54% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
| Dundee win | 21% | 19% | 4.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Livingston −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Dundee −0.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 51% | 49% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 51% | 1.98 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 23 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | The Home of the Set Fare Arena |