β Scottish Premiership 2025-26 Β· Sat, Dec 13, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: D. Nicolson
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Motherwell win | 43% | 35% | 2.15 | fair |
| Dundee United win | 31% | 32% | 2.95 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 33% | 3.50 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Dundee United +0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Motherwell +0.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 52% | 48% | 1.85 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 52% | 2.00 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand