← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Lee
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell win | 55% | 60% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.75 | fair |
| Livingston win | 20% | 19% | 4.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Livingston −0.75 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Motherwell −0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 55% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 45% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Elliot Watt · Motherwell |
| 39' | 🟨 | Regan Charles-Cook · Motherwell |
| 40' | 🟨 | Scott Pittman · Livingston |
| 56' | 🟨 | Cristian Montano · Livingston |
| 60' | ⚽ (pen) | Apostolos Stamatelopoulos · Motherwell |
| 86' | 🟨 | Ryan McGowan · Livingston |
| 88' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Longelo · Motherwell |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Motherwell | Livingston |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Fir Park |
| coach days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1516.13 | 1329.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.32 | -9.27 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 49.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.63 |
| league points | 23.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.60 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.40 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 0.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.07 | -0.46 |
| solidity v1 | 1.60 | 0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.42 | -1.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.61 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.68 | 1.09 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 1.50 |