← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 30, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Nick Walsh, Scotland
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic win | 51% | 52% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 30% | 3.50 | value: +7% |
| Hibernian win | 24% | 17% | 3.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Celtic +0.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Hibernian +0.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 63% | 1.67 | value: +5% |
| Under | 43% | 37% | 2.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Colby Donovan · Celtic |
| 27' | ⚽ | Daizen Maeda · Celtic |
| 28' | 🟨 | Jamie McGrath · Hibernian |
| 28' | ⚽ | Arne Engels · Celtic |
| 35' | 🟨 | Miguel Changa Chaiwa · Hibernian |
| 54' | 🟨 | Liam Scales · Celtic |
| 56' | 🟨 | Jordan Obita · Hibernian |
| 56' | 🟨 | Kasper Schmeichel · Celtic |
| 56' | ⚽ (pen) | Martin Boyle · Hibernian |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hibernian | Celtic |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| venue | Easter Road |
| coach days | 578.00 | 121.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 3.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1578.66 | 1791.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.97 | 11.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | 0.85 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 45.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.70 |
| league points | 21.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 60.00 |
| rest days | 4.68 | 2.76 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 9.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 18.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.11 | 1.29 |
| solidity v1 | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | — | 29.54 |
| state index | 0.15 | 1.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.57 | 0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.47 | 1.42 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 2.05 |