← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D Dickinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hearts win | 47% | 52% | 2.01 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
| Aberdeen win | 26% | 22% | 3.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen +0.5 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Hearts +0.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 51% | 1.90 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 49% | 1.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Cláudio Braga · Hearts |
| 39' | ⚽ | Topi Keskinen · Aberdeen |
| 42' | 🟨 | Mats Knoester · Aberdeen |
| 50' | 🟨 | Michael Steinwender · Hearts |
| 64' | 🟨 | Cameron Devlin · Hearts |
| 81' | 🟨 | Nicky Devlin · Aberdeen |
| 89' | 🟨 | Gavin Molloy · Aberdeen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alexandros Kyziridis · Hearts |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 20 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aberdeen | Hearts |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Pittodrie Stadium |
| coach days | 22.00 | 206.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1444.51 | 1644.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.74 | 32.27 |
| eye test v1 | -1.07 | 0.85 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.50 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 63.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.73 |
| league points | 11.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.20 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.86 | 0.41 |
| solidity v1 | -0.89 | 0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.40 |
| state index | -0.39 | 1.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.89 | 1.13 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.63 |