← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ross Hardie, Scotland
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers win | 71% | 83% | 1.30 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 18% | 13% | 5.25 | fair |
| Livingston win | 12% | 4% | 8.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rangers −1.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Livingston −1.5 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 58% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 42% | 2.63 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Fernandez · Rangers |
| 18' | ⚽ | Tete Yengi · Livingston |
| 59' | 🟨 | Jayden Meghoma · Rangers |
| 62' | 🟨 | Cristian Montano · Livingston |
| 71' | 🟨 | Samson Lawal · Livingston |
| 78' | ⚽ | Mohammed Diomande · Rangers |
| 81' | 🟨 | Nedim Bajrami · Rangers |
| 85' | 🟨 | Robbie Muirhead · Livingston |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mahamadou Susoho · Livingston |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rangers | Livingston |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Ibrox Stadium |
| coach days | 144.00 | 1847.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1661.40 | 1339.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.05 | 0.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 44.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | — |
| league points | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.43 | 0.06 |
| solidity v1 | -0.10 | -0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.32 | — |
| state index | 0.41 | -1.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.71 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.59 | 1.19 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.16 | 1.68 |