← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ryan Lee, Scotland
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell win | 46% | 41% | 2.01 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 33% | 3.40 | value: +12% |
| Kilmarnock win | 27% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Motherwell +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Kilmarnock +0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 54% | 1.90 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 46% | 1.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Tom Lowery · Kilmarnock |
| 16' | ⚽ | Tawanda Maswanhise · Motherwell |
| 21' | 🟨 | Johnny Koutroumbis · Motherwell |
| 26' | ⚽ | Tawanda Maswanhise · Motherwell |
| 45' | 🟨 | Callum Hendry · Motherwell |
| 49' | ⚽ | Scott Tiffoney · Kilmarnock |
| 57' | 🟨 | Callum Slattery · Motherwell |
| 68' | ⚽ (pen) | Apostolos Stamatelopoulos · Motherwell |
| 80' | 🟨 | Apostolos Stamatelopoulos · Motherwell |
| 81' | 🟨 | Liam Gordon · Motherwell |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kilmarnock | Motherwell |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.85 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Rugby Park |
| coach days | 144.00 | 144.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1449.37 | 1481.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -53.06 | 7.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.86 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.44 | 0.72 |
| league points | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.00 | 58.80 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.21 | 0.93 |
| solidity v1 | -1.35 | 0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | -1.32 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.42 | 1.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.89 | 0.63 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.97 | 1.55 |