← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 9, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: D Robertson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic win | 83% | 83% | 1.11 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 12% | 8.00 | fair |
| Kilmarnock win | 5% | 5% | 17.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock −2.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Celtic −2.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 67% | 1.40 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 33% | 3.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Johnny Kenny · Celtic |
| 51' | ⚽ | Kieran Tierney · Celtic |
| 63' | 🟨 | Bradley Lyons · Kilmarnock |
| 71' | 🟨 | Callum McGregor · Celtic |
| 78' | 🟨 | Daizen Maeda · Celtic |
| 81' | 🟨 | Greg Kiltie · Kilmarnock |
| 85' | ⚽ | Daizen Maeda · Celtic |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Arne Engels · Celtic |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 3 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 4 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Celtic | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.83 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Celtic Park |
| coach days | 100.00 | 131.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1766.57 | 1453.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -57.19 | -34.71 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.20 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | — |
| league points | 20.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.80 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 2.93 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 12.00 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.80 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.09 | -1.05 |
| solidity v1 | -0.27 | -0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 29.03 | — |
| state index | 0.37 | -0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.84 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.51 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.70 | 1.07 |