β Scottish Premiership 2025-26 Β· Sun, Nov 9, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: John Beaton, Scotland
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hearts win | 70% | 74% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 17% | 5.00 | fair |
| Dundee United win | 11% | 8% | 8.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dundee United β1.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Hearts β1.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 57% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 43% | 2.63 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | β½ (og) | Yevhenii Kucherenko Β· Hearts |
| 45' | π¨ | Ivan DolΔek Β· Dundee United |
| 45' | β½ | Luca Stephenson Β· Dundee United |
| 63' | π¨ | Amar Fatah Β· Dundee United |
| 75' | π¨ | Alexandros Kyziridis Β· Hearts |
| 80' | π¨ | Craig Halkett Β· Hearts |
| 80' | π¨ | Iurie Iovu Β· Dundee United |
| 90' | π¨ | Dario Naamo Β· Dundee United |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hearts | Dundee United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Tynecastle Park |
| coach days | 192.00 | 984.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1650.59 | 1483.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 45.67 | -18.21 |
| eye test v1 | 0.90 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.70 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.40 | β |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| league points | 29.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 10.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 2.64 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.40 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.73 | -0.97 |
| solidity v1 | 0.31 | -0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| state index | 1.32 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | -1.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.85 | 1.59 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 1.10 |