← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 8, 05:45 PM UTC · ref: David Dickinson, Scotland
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernian win | 36% | 36% | 2.57 | fair |
| St Mirren win | 35% | 36% | 2.65 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hibernian +0 | 50% | 1.93 |
| St Mirren +0 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 52% | 1.90 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 48% | 1.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Josh Mulligan · Hibernian |
| 26' | 🟨 | Keanu Baccus · St Mirren |
| 53' | ⚽ | Christopher Cadden · Hibernian |
| 56' | 🟨 | Richard King · St Mirren |
| 66' | 🟨 | Rocky Bushiri Kiranga · Hibernian |
| 77' | 🟨 | Declan John · St Mirren |
| 80' | ⚽ | Miguel Changa Chaiwa · Hibernian |
| 90' | 🟨 | Roland Idowu · St Mirren |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | St Mirren | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | The SMISA Stadium |
| coach days | 1376.00 | 556.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1495.49 | 1572.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.76 | -8.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.98 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.77 |
| league points | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 9.92 | 7.11 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.67 | -0.28 |
| solidity v1 | -0.28 | 0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.60 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | -0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 1.11 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.56 | 1.14 |