← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Calum Scott, Scotland
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernian win | 50% | 50% | 1.86 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.60 | fair |
| Livingston win | 24% | 24% | 3.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hibernian +0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Livingston +0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 51% | 1.83 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 49% | 2.03 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Jamie McGrath · Hibernian |
| 24' | 🟨 | Rocky Bushiri Kiranga · Hibernian |
| 37' | 🟨 | Jack Iredale · Hibernian |
| 37' | ⚽ | Jeremy Bokila · Livingston |
| 39' | 🟨 | Scott Pittman · Livingston |
| 55' | ⚽ | Martin Boyle · Hibernian |
| 77' | 🟨 | Jeremy Bokila · Livingston |
| 81' | 🟨 | Cristian Montano · Livingston |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniel Barlaser · Hibernian |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Graham Carey · Livingston |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Livingston | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | The Home of the Set Fare Arena |
| coach days | 1826.00 | 549.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1330.31 | 1577.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.82 | 3.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | 0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 43.60 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.80 |
| league points | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | -0.57 |
| solidity v1 | -0.70 | 1.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| state index | -1.33 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | -0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 0.58 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 1.26 |