β Scottish Premiership 2025-26 Β· Wed, Oct 29, 07:45 PM UTC Β· ref: D Nicolson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen win | 37% | 39% | 2.50 | fair |
| Kilmarnock win | 36% | 31% | 2.57 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen +0 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Kilmarnock +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 53% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 47% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | β½ | Stuart Armstrong Β· Aberdeen |
| 25' | π¨ | Graeme Shinnie Β· Aberdeen |
| 31' | π¨ | Marko LazetiΔ Β· Aberdeen |
| 33' | π¨ | David Watson Β· Kilmarnock |
| 59' | π¨ | Bradley Lyons Β· Kilmarnock |
| 66' | π¨ | Greg Kiltie Β· Kilmarnock |
| 67' | π¨ | George Stanger Β· Kilmarnock |
| 67' | π¨ | Jesper Karlsson Β· Aberdeen |
| 78' | π¨ | Dylan Lobban Β· Aberdeen |
| 81' | π¨ | Dante Polvara Β· Aberdeen |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kilmarnock | Aberdeen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Rugby Park |
| π¨ |
| Dimitar Mitov Β· Aberdeen |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 120.00 | 515.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1480.80 | 1426.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.98 | 6.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 51.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.40 | 0.58 |
| league points | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.80 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 33.80 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.22 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | β |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 0.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.92 | -0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.28 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.79 | -0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |