← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Don Robertson, Scotland
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Celtic win | 73% | 75% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 14% | 6.67 | fair |
| Hibernian win | 10% | 11% | 10.85 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Celtic −1.5 | 54% | 1.98 |
| Hibernian −1.5 | 46% | 2.35 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 67% | 70% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 33% | 30% | 3.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 26 | Shots | 4 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 1 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand