← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 13, 04:45 PM UTC · ref: Dan McFarlane, Scotland
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernian win | 56% | 61% | 1.74 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.00 | fair |
| Dundee United win | 20% | 18% | 4.85 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dundee United −0.75 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Hibernian −0.75 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 53% | 1.81 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 47% | 2.08 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Luca Stephenson · Dundee United |
| 24' | 🟨 | Iurie Iovu · Dundee United |
| 27' | ⚽ (og) | Yevhenii Kucherenko · Hibernian |
| 44' | ⚽ | Zachary Sapsford · Dundee United |
| 47' | ⚽ | Luca Stephenson · Dundee United |
| 50' | ⚽ | Kieron Bowie · Hibernian |
| 58' | 🟨 | Josh Mulligan · Hibernian |
| 63' | 🟨 | Amar Fatah · Dundee United |
| 68' | 🟨 | Vicko Ševelj · Dundee United |
| 84' | 🟥 | Vicko Ševelj · Dundee United |
| 86' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 27 | Shots | 13 |
| 12 | On target | 9 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hibernian | Dundee United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Easter Road |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Jamie McGrath · Hibernian |
| 90' | 🟨 | Josh Campbell · Hibernian |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bert Esselink · Dundee United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 500.00 | 927.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1603.42 | 1493.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.21 | 16.69 |
| eye test v1 | 0.81 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.67 |
| league points | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 39.80 |
| rest days | 13.11 | 13.16 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.67 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.76 | -0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.18 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | -1.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |