← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Dan McFarlane, Scotland
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell win | 50% | 44% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.65 | value: +5% |
| Kilmarnock win | 24% | 27% | 4.11 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Motherwell −0.5 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Kilmarnock −0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 51% | 1.91 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 49% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Djenairo Daniels · Kilmarnock |
| 27' | 🟨 | Djenairo Daniels · Kilmarnock |
| 43' | 🟨 | Elliot Watt · Motherwell |
| 44' | 🟨 | Bradley Lyons · Kilmarnock |
| 45' | ⚽ | Tawanda Maswanhise · Motherwell |
| 52' | 🟨 | Robbie Deas · Kilmarnock |
| 62' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Longelo · Motherwell |
| 81' | ⚽ | George Stanger · Kilmarnock |
| 84' | 🟨 | Kyle Magennis · Kilmarnock |
| 90' | 🟨 | Liam Gordon · Motherwell |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 0 |
| 17 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Motherwell | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Fir Park |
| 🟨 |
| Marcus Dackers · Kilmarnock |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 60.00 | 60.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.72 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1464.21 | 1470.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.25 | -30.85 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.67 |
| league points | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.92 | -0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.60 |
| state index | 0.15 | -0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.27 | -0.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |