← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Duncan Nicolson, Scotland
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hearts win | 46% | 46% | 2.09 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.46 | value: +11% |
| Livingston win | 26% | 22% | 3.77 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Livingston +0.5 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Hearts +0.5 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 53% | 1.87 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 47% | 2.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Craig Halkett · Hearts |
| 23' | 🟨 | Tete Yengi · Livingston |
| 26' | ⚽ | Lewis Smith · Livingston |
| 47' | ⚽ | Cláudio Braga · Hearts |
| 62' | 🟨 | Daniel Finlayson · Livingston |
| 71' | 🟨 | Scott Pittman · Livingston |
| 75' | 🟨 | Robbie Muirhead · Livingston |
| 77' | 🟨 | Ryan McGowan · Livingston |
| 83' | 🟨 | Harry Milne · Hearts |
| 86' | 🟨 | Connor McLennan · Livingston |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Livingston | Hearts |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | The Home of the Set Fare Arena |
| 🟨 |
| Stevie May · Livingston |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alexandros Kyziridis · Hearts |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1763.00 | 121.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 3.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1350.50 | 1569.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.38 | 28.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | 0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.00 | 52.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| league points | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.22 | 0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.53 | 0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.44 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |