← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: John Beaton, Scotland
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hearts win | 58% | 60% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.02 | fair |
| Motherwell win | 18% | 16% | 5.72 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hearts −0.75 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Motherwell −0.75 | 48% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 54% | 1.93 | value: +4% |
| Over | 50% | 46% | 1.95 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Callum Slattery · Motherwell |
| 24' | 🟨 | Callum Slattery · Motherwell |
| 35' | 🟨 | Craig Halkett · Hearts |
| 45' | 🟨 | Oisin McEntee · Hearts |
| 49' | ⚽ | Tawanda Maswanhise · Motherwell |
| 58' | 🟨 | Harry Milne · Hearts |
| 62' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Longelo · Motherwell |
| 65' | ⚽ | Harry Milne · Hearts |
| 74' | ⚽ | Cláudio Braga · Hearts |
| 78' | 🟨 | Callum Hendry · Motherwell |
| 83' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hearts | Motherwell |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | Tynecastle Park |
| ⚽ |
| Cláudio Braga · Hearts |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 114.00 | 53.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.57 | 1.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1574.21 | 1459.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 43.19 | 16.12 |
| eye test v1 | 0.32 | 0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.70 | 48.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.86 | 1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| state index | 0.80 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.79 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |