← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sun, Aug 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Dickinson, Scotland
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hearts win | 52% | 43% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.61 | fair |
| Dundee United win | 21% | 28% | 4.67 | value: +32% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hearts +0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Dundee United +0.5 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 45% | 1.86 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 55% | 2.04 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ (pen) | Lawrence Shankland · Hearts |
| 22' | ⚽ | Ivan Dolček · Dundee United |
| 31' | 🟨 | Harry Milne · Hearts |
| 41' | ⚽ | Ivan Dolček · Dundee United |
| 43' | 🟨 | Krisztián Keresztes · Dundee United |
| 50' | 🟨 | Panutche Camará · Dundee United |
| 58' | ⚽ | Stuart Findlay · Hearts |
| 83' | 🟨 | Cláudio Braga · Hearts |
| 86' | 🟨 | Vicko Ševelj · Dundee United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Stuart Findlay · Hearts |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dundee United | Hearts |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Tannadice Park |
| 🟨 |
| Alexandros Kyziridis · Hearts |
| 90' | ⚽ | Stuart Findlay · Hearts |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 893.00 | 101.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 3.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1476.92 | 1565.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.05 | 46.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.72 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.60 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 5.79 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.11 | 0.70 |
| solidity v1 | — | 0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| state index | 0.02 | 0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | — | 1.82 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | — | 1.18 |