← Scottish Premiership 2024-25 · Sun, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. McLean
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Dundee win | 46% | 40% | 2.05 | fair |
| St Johnstone win | 28% | 33% | 3.42 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.70 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Dundee +0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| St Johnstone +0.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 54% | 53% | 1.78 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 47% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 9 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand