← Scottish Premiership 2024-25 · Wed, May 14, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: S. McLean
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic win | 48% | 60% | 1.99 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.83 | value: +6% |
| Aberdeen win | 26% | 12% | 3.70 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen +0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Celtic +0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 65% | 1.63 | value: +5% |
| Under | 41% | 35% | 2.37 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Alfie Dorrington · Aberdeen |
| 31' | ⚽ | Maik Nawrocki · Celtic |
| 42' | ⚽ | Kevin Nisbet · Aberdeen |
| 45' | ⚽ | Yang Hyun-Jun · Celtic |
| 48' | ⚽ | Luke McCowan · Celtic |
| 54' | ⚽ | Johnny Kenny · Celtic |
| 57' | 🟨 | Pape Habib Gueye · Aberdeen |
| 75' | 🟨 | Jack Mackenzie · Aberdeen |
| 78' | 🟨 | Alfie Dorrington · Aberdeen |
| 78' | 🟥 | Alfie Dorrington · Aberdeen |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 25 |
| 4 | On target | 14 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 2 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aberdeen | Celtic |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Pittodrie Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Adam Idah · Celtic |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 347.00 | 683.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 6.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.19 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1503.20 | 1858.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.99 | -6.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | 1.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| league points | 53.00 | 88.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 89.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 75.80 |
| rest days | 3.33 | 4.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 2.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.03 | 2.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 26.71 | 28.29 |
| state index | -0.04 | 1.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | 2.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |