← Scottish Premiership 2024-25 · Wed, May 14, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: C. Graham
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Mirren win | 37% | 34% | 2.59 | fair |
| Hibernian win | 34% | 37% | 2.85 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.38 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| St Mirren +0 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Hibernian +0 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 55% | 1.93 | value: +6% |
| Over | 50% | 45% | 1.96 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Martin Boyle · Hibernian |
| 10' | ⚽ | Mykola Kukharevych · Hibernian |
| 23' | 🟨 | Jordan Obita · Hibernian |
| 36' | 🟨 | Declan John · St Mirren |
| 38' | 🟨 | Nectarios Triantis · Hibernian |
| 45' | ⚽ | Richard Taylor · St Mirren |
| 56' | 🟨 | Jonah Ayunga · St Mirren |
| 64' | ⚽ | Conor McMenamin · St Mirren |
| 78' | 🟨 | Marcus Fraser · St Mirren |
| 79' | 🟨 | Kieron Bowie · Hibernian |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | St Mirren | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | The SMISA Stadium |
| coach days | 1198.00 | 378.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1515.86 | 1603.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.33 | 24.61 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.49 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.78 |
| league points | 48.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 39.00 |
| rest days | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.79 | -1.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.99 | 27.37 |
| state index | 0.37 | 0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.81 | -1.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |