← Scottish Premiership 2024-25 · Wed, May 14, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Dickinson
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Hearts win | 58% | 62% | 1.66 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.75 | fair |
| St Johnstone win | 17% | 16% | 6.18 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Hearts −0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| St Johnstone −0.75 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 51% | 57% | 1.91 | value: +8% |
| Under | 49% | 43% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand