← Scottish Premiership 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: N. Walsh
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee United win | 52% | 52% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.89 | fair |
| Dundee win | 23% | 23% | 4.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dundee United −0.5 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Dundee −0.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 49% | 1.88 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 51% | 2.01 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Jordan McGhee · Dundee |
| 23' | ⚽ | Scott Tiffoney · Dundee |
| 31' | ⚽ | Glenn Middleton · Dundee United |
| 34' | 🟨 | Will Ferry · Dundee United |
| 39' | ⚽ | Jordan McGhee · Dundee |
| 49' | ⚽ | Kristijan Trapanovski · Dundee United |
| 74' | 🟨 | Joe Shaughnessy · Dundee |
| 83' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Adegboyega · Dundee United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ryan Strain · Dundee United |
| 90' | 🟥 | Emmanuel Adegboyega · Dundee United |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dundee United | Dundee |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | CalForth Construction Arena at Tannadice Park |
| 🟨 |
| Simon Murray · Dundee |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Simon Murray · Dundee |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 746.00 | 685.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1467.02 | 1395.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.12 | -34.34 |
| eye test v1 | -1.03 | -0.93 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.40 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.56 |
| league points | 41.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 66.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.19 | -1.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 25.54 | 26.48 |
| state index | -0.54 | -1.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.73 | -0.97 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |