← Scottish Premiership 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Irvine
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Mirren win | 36% | 38% | 2.75 | value: +3% |
| Motherwell win | 33% | 31% | 2.94 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.10 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| St Mirren +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Motherwell +0 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 64% | 1.65 | value: +6% |
| Over | 41% | 36% | 2.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Caolan Boyd-Munce · St Mirren |
| 32' | 🟨 | Marcus Fraser · St Mirren |
| 33' | ⚽ | Killian Phillips · St Mirren |
| 35' | ⚽ | Callum Slattery · Motherwell |
| 61' | 🟨 | Liam Gordon · Motherwell |
| 61' | 🟨 | Toyosi Olusanya · St Mirren |
| 62' | 🟨 | Alex Iacovitti · St Mirren |
| 71' | ⚽ | Callum Slattery · Motherwell |
| 80' | 🟨 | Oisin Smyth · St Mirren |
| 84' | 🟨 | Toyosi Olusanya · St Mirren |
| 84' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 5 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 0 | Corners | 7 |
| 6 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Motherwell | St Mirren |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Fir Park |
| 🟥 |
| Toyosi Olusanya · St Mirren |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dan Casey · Motherwell |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andy Halliday · Motherwell |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 42.00 | 1138.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1454.95 | 1477.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.43 | -1.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.60 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | — |
| league points | 37.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 65.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.85 | -1.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.03 | 26.93 |
| state index | -0.45 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | -1.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |