← Scottish Premiership 2024-25 · Wed, Feb 26, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Robertson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers win | 64% | 63% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 21% | 4.58 | fair |
| Kilmarnock win | 15% | 16% | 6.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock +1.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Rangers +1.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 61% | 1.65 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 39% | 2.34 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Joe Wright · Kilmarnock |
| 14' | ⚽ | Bradley Lyons · Kilmarnock |
| 18' | 🟨 | Kyle Magennis · Kilmarnock |
| 18' | 🟨 | Ianis Hagi · Rangers |
| 35' | ⚽ | Václav Černý · Rangers |
| 53' | ⚽ | Cyriel Dessers · Rangers |
| 62' | ⚽ | Cyriel Dessers · Rangers |
| 63' | 🟨 | Cyriel Dessers · Rangers |
| 72' | 🟨 | Robin Pröpper · Rangers |
| 83' | 🟨 | David Watson · Kilmarnock |
| 83' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kilmarnock | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park |
| Tom Lawrence · Rangers |
| 85' | ⚽ | Nedim Bajrami · Rangers |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1152.00 | 25.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.37 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1504.66 | 1783.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.11 | -2.37 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | 1.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.50 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.75 |
| league points | 31.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.40 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 4.21 | 4.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 2.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 12.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 22.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.22 | 0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 27.40 | 27.08 |
| state index | 0.13 | 1.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.80 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |