← Scottish Premiership 2024-25 · Wed, Feb 5, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: C. Steven
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic win | 89% | 90% | 1.07 | fair |
| Draw | 8% | 8% | 14.20 | value: +13% |
| Dundee win | 3% | 2% | 36.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Celtic −2.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Dundee −2.75 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 77% | 77% | 1.25 | fair |
| Under | 23% | 23% | 4.26 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Mohammad Sylla · Dundee |
| 18' | ⚽ (pen) | Arne Engels · Celtic |
| 29' | 🟨 | Auston Trusty · Celtic |
| 45' | 🟨 | Simon Murray · Dundee |
| 45' | ⚽ | Adam Idah · Celtic |
| 50' | 🟨 | Josh Mulligan · Dundee |
| 51' | 🟨 | Cesar Garza · Dundee |
| 55' | ⚽ | Daizen Maeda · Celtic |
| 59' | ⚽ | Daizen Maeda · Celtic |
| 71' | ⚽ | Arne Engels · Celtic |
| 81' | ⚽ |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 5 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Celtic | Dundee |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Celtic Park |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 585.00 | 646.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.56 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1880.57 | 1429.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.75 | 0.42 |
| eye test v1 | 1.73 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.20 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.62 |
| league points | 63.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.00 | 56.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 34.20 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.63 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.60 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.40 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 2.82 | -2.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.62 | 26.13 |
| state index | 1.64 | -0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 2.10 | -2.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |