← Scottish Premiership 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Beaton
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hearts win | 51% | 49% | 1.87 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.70 | fair |
| Kilmarnock win | 22% | 24% | 4.48 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hearts −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Kilmarnock −0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 52% | 1.83 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 48% | 2.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Elton Kabangu · Hearts |
| 42' | 🟨 | Robbie Deas · Kilmarnock |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jorge Grant · Hearts |
| 45' | 🟨 | Marley Watkins · Kilmarnock |
| 45' | 🟨 | Kyle Magennis · Kilmarnock |
| 50' | ⚽ | Bobby Wales · Kilmarnock |
| 54' | 🟨 | Danny Armstrong · Kilmarnock |
| 58' | ⚽ | Jamie McCart · Hearts |
| 61' | ⚽ | Jorge Grant · Hearts |
| 67' | ⚽ | Fraser Murray · Kilmarnock |
| 81' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hearts | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Tynecastle Park |
| 🟨 |
| David Watson · Kilmarnock |
| 90' | 🟨 | Malachi Boateng · Hearts |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 116.00 | 1120.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.84 | 3.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1525.21 | 1506.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.31 | 3.76 |
| eye test v1 | -0.00 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 46.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.72 |
| league points | 24.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 16.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.22 | -0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.94 | 26.80 |
| state index | 0.30 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.31 | -0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |