← Scottish Premiership 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Clancy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers win | 70% | 76% | 1.36 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 18% | 14% | 5.42 | fair |
| Motherwell win | 12% | 10% | 8.89 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Motherwell +1.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Rangers +1.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 64% | 1.63 | value: +4% |
| Under | 41% | 36% | 2.37 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Robin Pröpper · Rangers |
| 16' | ⚽ | Apostolos Stamatelopoulos · Motherwell |
| 35' | ⚽ | Tawanda Maswanhise · Motherwell |
| 50' | ⚽ | Hamza Igamane · Rangers |
| 53' | 🟨 | Lennon Miller · Motherwell |
| 68' | ⚽ | Hamza Igamane · Rangers |
| 87' | 🟨 | Dujon Sterling · Rangers |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sam Nicholson · Motherwell |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tony Watt · Motherwell |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tom Sparrow · Motherwell |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 23 |
| 4 | On target | 9 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Motherwell | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Fir Park |
| 🟨 |
| Václav Černý · Rangers |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 697.00 | 455.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.80 |
| elo | 1464.41 | 1766.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.02 | -8.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.71 | 1.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.75 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 52.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.76 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| league points | 26.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 34.80 | 65.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 2.89 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 2.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 15.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 21.20 |
| skill v1 | -2.64 | 1.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.00 |
| squad age | — | 26.63 |
| state index | -0.53 | 1.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.70 | 0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |