← Scottish Premiership 2024-25 · Thu, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Hardie
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Celtic win | 84% | 93% | 1.15 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 11% | 5% | 9.58 | fair |
| Motherwell win | 6% | 2% | 19.53 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Celtic −2.25 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Motherwell −2.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 72% | 78% | 1.33 | value: +3% |
| Under | 28% | 22% | 3.42 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 2 |
| 7 | On target | 0 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand