← Scottish Premiership 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: N. Walsh
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell win | 38% | 43% | 2.60 | value: +11% |
| Dundee United win | 34% | 26% | 2.92 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.50 | value: +12% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Motherwell +0 | 53% | 1.82 |
| Dundee United +0 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 52% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 48% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Apostolos Stamatelopoulos · Motherwell |
| 3' | 🟨 | David Babunski · Dundee United |
| 7' | ⚽ (pen) | Sam Dalby · Dundee United |
| 33' | ⚽ | Andy Halliday · Motherwell |
| 40' | ⚽ | Apostolos Stamatelopoulos · Motherwell |
| 45' | 🟨 | Liam Gordon · Motherwell |
| 45' | 🟨 | Vicko Ševelj · Dundee United |
| 48' | 🟨 | Declan Gallagher · Dundee United |
| 54' | ⚽ | Sam Dalby · Dundee United |
| 67' | ⚽ | Tom Sparrow · Motherwell |
| 75' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 9 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Motherwell | Dundee United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Fir Park |
| 🟨 |
| Apostolos Stamatelopoulos · Motherwell |
| 87' | ⚽ | Louis Moult · Dundee United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 682.00 | 654.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1459.45 | 1455.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.82 | 36.50 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.80 |
| league points | 22.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 67.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.04 | -1.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.66 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.90 | -0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |