← Scottish Premiership 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. McFarlane
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Mirren win | 51% | 46% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.54 | value: +6% |
| Motherwell win | 21% | 24% | 4.54 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| St Mirren −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Motherwell −0.5 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 51% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 49% | 2.16 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Shane Blaney · Motherwell |
| 34' | 🟨 | Richard Taylor · St Mirren |
| 42' | 🟨 | Alexander Gogić · St Mirren |
| 58' | 🟨 | Greg Kiltie · St Mirren |
| 62' | 🟨 | Toyosi Olusanya · St Mirren |
| 69' | 🟨 | Steve Seddon · Motherwell |
| 77' | 🟨 | Apostolos Stamatelopoulos · Motherwell |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alexander Gogić · St Mirren |
| 90' | 🟥 | Alexander Gogić · St Mirren |
| 90' | ⚽ | Tony Watt · Motherwell |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | St Mirren | Motherwell |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | The SMISA Stadium |
| coach days | 1040.00 | 675.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1472.32 | 1452.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.92 | -35.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 52.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| league points | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 60.40 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.60 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -2.10 | -0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.46 | 25.03 |
| state index | 0.24 | -0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.37 | -0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |