← Scottish Premiership 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Hardie
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen win | 59% | 62% | 1.64 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.14 | fair |
| St Johnstone win | 18% | 16% | 5.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| St Johnstone −1 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Aberdeen −1 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 53% | 1.81 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 47% | 2.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Slobodan Rubežić · Aberdeen |
| 25' | ⚽ | Makenzie Kirk · St Johnstone |
| 27' | 🟨 | Lewis Neilson · St Johnstone |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jack Milne · Aberdeen |
| 56' | ⚽ | Leighton Clarkson · Aberdeen |
| 62' | 🟨 | Kevin Nisbet · Aberdeen |
| 76' | 🟨 | Sven Sprangler · St Johnstone |
| 77' | 🟨 | Nicky Clark · St Johnstone |
| 84' | 🟨 | Ante Palaversa · Aberdeen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Graeme Shinnie · Aberdeen |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 6 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 19 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aberdeen | St Johnstone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Pittodrie Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Joshua Rae · St Johnstone |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 189.00 | 67.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 1.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1582.33 | 1382.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.15 | -13.61 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.72 |
| league points | 33.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 6.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 2.20 | 0.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.04 | 0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.00 | -0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | 1.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |