← Scottish Premiership 2024-25 · Tue, Nov 26, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: C. Scott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernian win | 38% | 37% | 2.55 | fair |
| Aberdeen win | 33% | 32% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.46 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hibernian +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Aberdeen +0 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 56% | 1.93 | value: +8% |
| Over | 49% | 44% | 1.96 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | ⚽ | Joe Newell · Hibernian |
| 44' | 🟨 | Mykola Kukharevych · Hibernian |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lewis Miller · Hibernian |
| 55' | ⚽ | Jamie McGrath · Aberdeen |
| 71' | 🟨 | Jack Iredale · Hibernian |
| 71' | 🟨 | Nicky Devlin · Aberdeen |
| 76' | ⚽ | Nicky Devlin · Aberdeen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Nicky Cadden · Hibernian |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ester Sokler · Aberdeen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Rocky Bushiri Kiranga · Hibernian |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hibernian | Aberdeen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.80 |
| venue | Easter Road Stadium |
| coach days | 209.00 | 178.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.74 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1432.08 | 1596.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.07 | 21.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | 0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.45 | 0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.76 |
| league points | 8.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 3.08 | 3.16 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.62 | 2.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.11 | 0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 25.75 | 26.98 |
| state index | -0.84 | 0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |