← Scottish Premiership 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 23, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Beaton
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen win | 37% | 41% | 2.70 | value: +10% |
| St Mirren win | 35% | 33% | 2.76 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen +0 | 51% | 1.89 |
| St Mirren +0 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 49% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 51% | 2.03 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Toyosi Olusanya · St Mirren |
| 28' | 🟨 | Alexander Gogić · St Mirren |
| 43' | 🟨 | Jamie McGrath · Aberdeen |
| 44' | 🟨 | Conor McMenamin · St Mirren |
| 50' | ⚽ | Jamie McGrath · Aberdeen |
| 60' | 🟨 | Graeme Shinnie · Aberdeen |
| 72' | 🟨 | Gavin Molloy · Aberdeen |
| 79' | 🟨 | Duk · Aberdeen |
| 83' | ⚽ | Richard Taylor · St Mirren |
| 90' | 🟨 | Greg Kiltie · St Mirren |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | St Mirren | Aberdeen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | The SMISA Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Kevin Nisbet · Aberdeen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1026.00 | 175.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 3.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1474.36 | 1608.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.65 | 40.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.66 | 0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.46 | 0.63 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.90 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.77 |
| league points | 15.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.80 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 14.04 | 13.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 2.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -2.37 | 0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 27.39 | 25.77 |
| state index | -0.05 | 0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.02 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |