← Scottish Premiership 2024-25 · Wed, Oct 30, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Beaton
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers win | 49% | 50% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.71 | fair |
| Aberdeen win | 24% | 25% | 3.99 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rangers +0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Aberdeen +0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 55% | 1.87 | value: +4% |
| Under | 48% | 45% | 2.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Ross McCausland · Rangers |
| 28' | 🟨 | Ester Sokler · Aberdeen |
| 31' | ⚽ | Nicky Devlin · Aberdeen |
| 50' | 🟨 | Jack Mackenzie · Aberdeen |
| 51' | 🟨 | Sivert Heltne Nilsen · Aberdeen |
| 61' | 🟨 | Dimitar Mitov · Aberdeen |
| 63' | ⚽ | Nedim Bajrami · Rangers |
| 74' | ⚽ | Shayden Morris · Aberdeen |
| 78' | 🟨 | Leon Balogun · Rangers |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gavin Molloy · Aberdeen |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 6 | Fouls | 20 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aberdeen | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Pittodrie Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Nicolas Raskin · Rangers |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 151.00 | 395.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.01 | 1.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1587.41 | 1783.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.88 | -26.70 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | 0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 49.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.68 |
| league points | 25.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 60.80 |
| rest days | 4.15 | 3.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.78 | 2.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | 1.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.40 | 26.38 |
| state index | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.57 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |